Tags
Asian Flu, COVID, covid-19, COVID19, Hong Kong Flu, India, Second Wave, Spanish Flu
As you might remember that the first wave of COVID19 pandemic in India peaked in September 2020. But as the daily cases were waning on each passing day, the common people as well as the policymakers thought that the worst is already over now. But if you go by the characteristics of recent 3 pandemics then you will be able figure it out (even though, you are not a “epidemiologist”) that the worst might not be over yet –
Pandemic Name | When Did it happen? | No. of waves/mutations | Remark |
Spanish Flu | 1918-1919 | 3 | 2nd wave was deadlier than 1st one. 3rd wave was less deadly than 2nd but deadlier than 1st wave. |
Asian Flu | 1957-58 | 2 | 2nd wave was deadlier than 1st one. |
Hong Kong Flu | 1968-70 | 2 | 2nd wave was deadlier than 1st one. |
During all three previous pandemics, the second wave (caused by mutant virus of first wave) was deadlier than first wave.
Since March 2021, India is reeling under its worst COVID-19 surge so far. This has largely been the Second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in India. India has been reporting 200,000+ daily new infection cases since past 11 days. This second wave was caused by a “double mutant strain”, named B.1.617. This second wave is not sparing any specific age-group. People are clamoring for help across several parts of India. Common people are facing so many challenges –
- Hospital beds have fallen short
- Oxygen supply has fallen short (this alone has resulted into many deaths)
- ICU beds with ventilators have fallen short
There was unpreparedness and lack of foresight on central government part and it must take the blame for most of this chaos. But do you really think that all this mess has happened because of the mammoth scale of the infection during second wave?
I don’t feel so.
We had enough data at our disposal to visualize the enormity of the situation beforehand. Take a look at HAQ Index (Healthcare Access & Quality Index). This Index is measured on a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) based on the death rates from 32 causes of death that could be avoided by timely and effective medical care (Pandemic situation has not been taken into account here).
By looking at the below graph, we can say that G7 countries have been well-placed to tackle the Pandemic. For G-7 countries, HAQ index has consistently increased from 65 to 85 over past 25 years period. G-7 countries may not control the infection rate (if virus has a new strain) but they can contain the mortality rate for the mild symptomatic people by providing timely health care service. It will be feasible because of their efficient and adequate healthcare system, which they have built over a period of time.
Take a look at HAQ Index figure for BRIC countries. The 3 BRIC Countries – Brazil, Russia and China have improved their HAQ index significantly over 25 years periods (1990 -2015). These 3 countries have improved its standings from an average index level of 55 in 1990 to average index level of 70 in 2015. It shows a marked improvement in the healthcare system in these 3 countries.
But India remained a laggard in the BRIC group of countries and could not improve its HAQ index much. HAQ Index level was at 30 in 1990 and it improved slightly to 40 in 2015. It shows India in a bad light when it comes to availability of adequate healthcare system for its residents.
Across the BRIC countries, there is going to be a huge strain on government during Pandemic, which calls for additional healthcare facilities to be made available in shorter span of time. The sheer neglect of healthcare system over the years (currently, spends around 1% of its GDP on healthcare), are the reason for this sorry state of affairs. But India, being a laggard on HAQ index parameter, is bound to be impacted severely by the pandemic.
In countries with lower HAQ Index score, we can understand how severe a Pandemic like situation (COVID-19) can become for these countries. Because of inadequate and inefficient healthcare system, these countries are unable to tackle usual diseases (for which vaccine is already available), so Pandemic can wreck a havoc in these countries. Mortality rate can shoot up sharply in absence of ICU beds with oxygen or with ventilators.
Pandemic requires availability of many isolation beds without oxygen or Ventilator support (for mildly affected person) and ICU beds equipped with Oxygen and Ventilators support (for person in serious condition). It requires availability of additional manpower of willing healthcare workers and staffs.
All these additional needs during the Pandemic like situation, may turn into a mayhem. We can just visualize the problem that people living in developing and lesser developed countries can face.
The reality is already in front of us. People are clamoring for beds outside the hospital but are being returned by the hospital. If few lucky ones manage to get one bed, they are further facing the problem of scarcity of oxygen supply. Many hospitals are claiming that only few hours of oxygen supply are left. Many have already exhausted all available oxygen and hence, are asking patients for go elsewhere in such grave situations. Next level of problem is scarcity of ventilators for critical patients.
This pandemic has exposed the neglected and broken healthcare system. Whether or not, there is a third wave in near future, this Pandemic should impel the policymakers to fix the healthcare system- not just tactically but strategically as well.
Disclaimer
A major part of above content has been adapted from my own book “The Economic Cost of 2020 Pandemic” (Available on Amazon).